Maha Vikas Aghadi shows its strength in Maharashtra but will remain wary of BJP

The Maha Vikas Aghadi of Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress harks back to a long Indian tradition of power attracting polar opposites. There have been several such instances from Congress accepting Muslim League into its interim government formed after the 1946 elections; Left-leaning Socialists and the market-friendly Swatantra party allying against Congress from the 1960s; the Hindu Right and the Left propping up two Janata governments against Congress in 1977 and 1989; and more recently BJP allying with the soft-separatist PDP to take power in Jammu and Kashmir.

But the MVA remains a puzzle unlike the other short lived experiments. It has proved an effective counter to the BJP even as its partners lock horns within. The results of the panchayat elections today saw all parties claim victory but the combined fire power of Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP evident during the recent legislative council elections is expected to repeat. The arithmetic of the MVA alliance poses difficulties for BJP, which will struggle to exceed the vote share of the three parties if they decide to fight future elections together. In 2019, BJP had won 23 out of 48 seats in the Lok Sabha and 105 of the 288 seats in the assembly when Sena was in the NDA.

The hit taken by Arnab Goswami in the Mumbai police investigation into the TRP scandal offers room for MVA to gloat. The revelations pouring out from Whatsapp chats that were part of the supplementary chargesheet in the case points to the extent of lobbying or hobnobbing by Goswami with central ministers, which would fit the conventional description of a power broker. Rarely has a police investigation by a state controlled by the opposition hit the BJP hard as this one. The combination of Uddhav Thackeray as chief minister and Sharad Pawar as the driving force of the coalition and the guiding hand in the home ministry is giving BJP strategists like Amit Shah a run for the money.

Yet the MVA isn’t without weaknesses. Congress is chafing over multiple slights, real and imagined. As the smallest party in the alliance, it claims its pet schemes are getting the short shrift and its senior ministers are being slighted. The Sena insistence on renaming Aurangabad and the Congress opposition to the plan is proving to be another flashpoint. Sharad Pawar must also guard his NCP against another coup. Ajit Pawar’s short lived tango with Devendra Fadnavis in 2019 may have failed spectacularly but he remains the most popular leader in the party after Pawar Senior. The allegations homing uncomfortably close to two top NCP leaders, Dhananjay Munde and Nawab Malik, and top Sena leaders coming under the radar of central agencies also puts great pressure on the two parties.

In the past, BJP was successful in chipping away at opposition led coalition governments in Karnataka and Bihar besides several Congress led governments. But in Maharashtra the challenges are different. Uddhav and Pawar appear to have strong personal lines of communication. BJP has rubbed both of them the wrong way elevating their personal stakes in ensuring the MVA’s success. The Congress legislative contingent is also a tough one to break unlike other states because most are second and third generation Congressmen and women, who would be unsure of securing a similar standing in BJP.  The coercive actions of central agencies could be a double edged sword: the fear and antipathy may keep the allies together or drive them apart.

Control of India’s richest state will also help the opposition in its fundraising efforts. If the MVA can survive the pressures on it and not implode until 2024, it would again make a strong case for opposition unity. Suddenly, Sharad Pawar has become the cynosure of all eyes in the non-BJP political spectrum. But age and an intransigent Congress that refuses to look beyond Sonia and Rahul Gandhi could act to Pawar’s detriment, despite the phenomenal energy he has displayed since the summer of 2019. While Bengal presents an opportunity to BJP, Maharashtra represents a challenge. Over to the next round in a relentless war of political intrigues.